MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19 Tracker - Oct 20

COVID-19 Trends and Developments

• The worldwide number of recorded COVID-19 cases crossed the 40 million mark on October 19, with the 439,878 new cases the highest daily total on record. The average number of new cases recorded per day over the past week stands at 370,464. This is the highest seven-day average caseload registered so far during the pandemic and is indicative of a burgeoning second wave of infections across densely populated European countries, a nascent third wave in areas of the United States, and sustained high new caseloads in hard-hit emerging markets with large populations such as India, Brazil, and Argentina.
• France recorded its highest-ever weekend new caseload on October 19, with 76,258 new cases added to the total. This far exceeds the previous weekend high of 43,663 registered on October 12. The rapid growth in infections saw the French government implement stringent new restrictions over the weekend, with the entire Paris region and eight large cities including Marseille, Lyon and Toulouse subject to a nighttime curfew.
• Spain also recorded its highest weekend new caseload on October 19. A total of 37,889 new cases were registered, exceeding the previous weekend high of 31,785 cases recorded on September 28. Authorities in the north-western Navarre autonomous community have stated that as of Thursday a semi-lockdown will be imposed, with hospitality closed and a nighttime curfew enforced. These are the strictest measures taken by a regional government since the initial lockdown in the spring.

Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0700BST October 20. N.b. Each dot represents a single day's figures, data for past three months

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