Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The Netherlands is holding its general election, with polls closing and results to be announced on 17 March. Prime Minister Mark Rutte is seeking to become the first-ever Dutch PM to win four consecutive elections. The outcome of the election has received relatively little international focus, with eyes in Europe largely trained on the machinations of Italian politics and the German federal election due in September. The vagaries of the Dutch electoral system and fractured party-political landscape makes it difficult to predict the composition of the next governing coalition.
PM Rutte's party is almost certain to win a plurality. However, the potential coalition partners he invites into government are likely to have a notable impact on the Dutch government's domestic economic policy, as well as government attitudes towards the European Union, encompassing immigration, Brexit, and crucially EU finances.
Full article PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Netherlands Election Preview.pdf
Main Takeaways
- PM Mark Rutte very likely to lead the next government, with his centre-right VVD party on course to win a plurality of seats. This would make Rutte the first Dutch PM to lead win four general elections.
- Forming a government could take a considerable amount of time, given that four or more parties are set to be required to reach a majority in the House of Representatives. Last government took 225 days to be officially agreed.
- The prospect of the populist, Eurosceptic right entering or supporting a government coalition is very small. The potential coalition allies for Geert Wilders' PVV or Thierry Baudet's FvD are few and far between, while Rutte's VVD has ruled-out working with either party.
- The formation of the coalition will have significant implications for EU politics in the coming years. Another centre-right/centrist coalition would likely see a continued hard-line stance against fiscal transfers and greater Commission debt issuance. Meanwhile, a stronger bias towards the centre-left could see a more conciliatory Dutch government as talks on the Growth and Stability pact approach.
Source: I&O Research, Peil.nl, Ipsos, Kantar Public, MNI. N.b. Party seat totals based on average March opinion polling, Dashed line sits at 76 seats, the number required for a majority in the House of Representatives.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.