MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS–NI Row Shows Legacy Brexit Issues

Events in early 2021 have shown that the trade deal reached on Christmas Eve 2020 is by no means an end to the Brexit saga. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) agreed between the United Kingdom and European Union avoided a WTO trading relationship, but it leaves many areas of policy unaddressed while the impediments to the previous trading relationship between the UK and EU have caused major difficulties for some sectors.

Main Takeaways

• UK's unilateral action in extending grace periods to avoid NI-GB trade checks has further damaged trust between London and Brussels.
• This could reduce the prospect of deals being reached on areas not covered in the TCA such as financial services.
• Actions of Westminster in terms of policy and personnel indicate that the Johnson government may be willing to sacrifice cordial relations with the EU if it results in a competitive advantage for the UK.
• The risk of a significant escalation in tensions in Northern Ireland remains low for now, despite loyalist pronouncements.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – NI Row Shows Legacy Brexit Issues.pdf