Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Pro-independence parties secured a majority in the regional parliament of Catalonia in the election held on 14 February. Against the odds, pro-independence parties also secured an overall majority of the vote, albeit on a low turnout of just 53%. The outcome of the election is somewhat complicated by the disparate ideologies of the pro-independence parties and the fact that the pro-union Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) won a plurality of votes, meaning that it will have the first opportunity to form a government.
Main Takeaways:
- Winning a majority in parliament and a majority of the vote will give the independence movement a significant boost after several years of struggling to maintain coherence.
- There is the prospect of political unrest in the coming weeks or months as pro-independence parties make renewed demands for an independence referendum. Another unauthorised illegal referendum cannot be ruled out.
- While pro-union parties did not win a majority, the strong result for the Socialists' Party of Catalonia – which won a plurality of the vote for the first time ever in Catalonia – will provide a timely boost to PM Pedro Sanchez.
- The main party on the right of Catalan politics becomes the nationalist VOX, continuing the trend towards more polarised politics with moderate unionists and Catalan nationalists losing out to more extreme parties.
Chart 1. 2021 Catalan Regional Election Results, Seats
Source: Government of Catalonia, MNI
Full article PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Pro-Independence Parties Secure Majority In Catalan Election.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.