MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - US Daily Brief 02-05-23

Executive Summary:

• The political standoff over the federal debt limit has escalated into a fully-fledged crisis. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the Congressional Budget Office warned yesterday that the government could default on its USD$31.4 trillion debt as soon as June 1^st unless Congress takes action.
• President Biden called the four congressional leaders yesterday to invite them to the White House for a crisis meeting on May 9 but Yellen's stark warning has done little to change the outward posture of either side. Wall Street is now a key player as pressure mounts to legislate a short-term solution to punt the crisis into next year.
• Veteran Democrat Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) has announced he will retire at the end of the current Senate cycle, opening up a rare seat in deep blue Maryland.
• House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has given his most significant indication yet that Ukraine aid will not be threatened by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.
• Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) will today take a third run at legislating his permitting reform bill.
• Poll of the Day: Confidence in the US economy has improved slightly since October last year.

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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - US Daily Brief 02-05-23 .pdf