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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - US Daily Brief 11-05-23

Executive Summary:

  • White House and Congressional negotiators will meet again today as they lay the groundwork for Friday's key debt limit meeting.
  • JP Morgan Chairman Jamie Dimon has echoed warnings from analysts that political dynamics make the current crisis more unpredictable than previous debt limit showdowns.
  • Former President Donald Trump has complicated negotiations by suggesting Republicans should allow the government to default if the White House doesn’t promise “massive” spending cuts.
  • Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has been given a boost by the return of Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-NY).
  • Centrist Democrat Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) has made moves signalling he may make a third-party presidential bid.
  • Former Vice President Mike Pence will make a decision about running for president by the end of June.
  • The Financial Times has reported that there is “little chance” of a meeting between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart Li Shangfu at the Shangri-La Dialogue in June.
  • President Biden will welcome Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House for a state visit on June 22.
  • Poll of the Day: Democrats are increasingly supportive of President Biden’s re-election bid but remain concerned about his age and the suitability of Vice President Kamala Harris.

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