MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 10-16 May

All timings subject to change.

Monday 10 May:

• European Union: Foreign Affairs council meeting takes place in Brussels. Main focus on transatlantic relations and situation in the Western Balkans. US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry due to join via videolink. Foreign ministers also due to discuss situation in the Sahel, relations with Russia, state of talks in Vienna on the Iran nuclear deal, and instability in Lebanon.
• South Africa:Governing ANC is set to deliver a final announcement on the 'step aside' rule in relation to party Secretary-General Ace Magashule. The SG was required under the rule to step aside from his role within 30 days of a corruption accusation but had refused to do so. There is speculation that Magashule could be expelled from the party, but this is viewed as an unlikely prospect with the risk of a breakaway party being formed in that scenario.
• Europe: Delphi Economic Forum gets underway in Athens. Forum is focused on political and economic issues in Greece and the Mediterranean. Continues to 15 May. Speakers on Monday include Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis, EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides, and EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni. High tensions evident between Greece and Turkey in recent months likely to come into focus whether in regard to disputed maritime borders and energy reserves in the East Med, with the final day of the forum dedicated to discussing Turkey.
• Russia:Public holiday to observe Victory Day.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 10-16 May.pdf