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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 14-20 March

All timings subject to change.

Monday 14 March:

  • US-China: US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan meets with China’s Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission General Office Yang Jiechi meet in Rome. The two are set to discuss the ‘regional and global security’ implications of the Russia-Ukraine War. There has been significant concern emanating from Washington, D.C., over the weekend that China may seek to provide military and economic assistance to Russia. Uncertainty as to whether this potential action would bring about Western sanctions on China, risking a deep schism in the global economy between US or Chinese-aligned nations.
  • Eurozone:Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels, arrivals from 1330CET (0830ET, 1230GMT). Primary area of discussion set to be coordination of eurozone fiscal policy for 2023, but the war in Ukraine will play a major part in talks. Finance ministers also set to discuss preparation for the European Council Summit taking place 24-25 March.
  • European Union:Coreper II meeting of member state ambassadors to the EU. Ambassadors are set to sign off on the latest batch of EU sanctions against Russia. Once final text is agreed, the decisions will go to written procedure for sign off. Speculation that the latest sanctions could include a ban on the export of vehicles worth more than EUR50k to Russia.
  • Germany-Turkey: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Ankara for talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey has offered to act as a facilitator of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, calling for a ceasefire and respect for humanitarian corridors for refugees. This is Scholz’s first visit to Turkey since taking over the presidency. The large Turkish diaspora in Germany means relations between Berlin and Ankara are of crucial importance for both governments.
  • Europe:UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson hosts representatives from Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway, the so-called ‘Joint Expeditionary Force’ of the European nations that have taken a lead in providing military support to Ukraine. Meetings will be followed by a dinner at PM’s country residence, Chequers.
Full article PDF attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 14-20 March.pdf

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