MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Feb 15-21

All timings subject to change. A somewhat quiet week for politics with holidays in North America and Asia, while EU institutions and the UK parliament take a week's winter break.

Monday 15 February:

• Global: As early as Monday the WHO is expected to deliver an 'emergency use listing' for the AstraZeneca/Oxford University COVID-19 vaccine. This is the official indication for nations with less robust regulatory frameworks that the vaccine reaches the WHO's standards for rollout. The AZ vaccine is one of the lowest-cost COVID-19 vaccines on the market, something that could assist with a rollout in emerging markets should increased supply of the vaccine come online.
• Eurozone: Videoconference of Eurogroup members takes place. Topics of discussion to include macroeconomic developments in the bloc, while WHO Executive Director for Health Emergencies Dr Michal Ryan will present on latest health developments. Ministers to also discuss the international role of the euro – one element of the so-called 'strategic autonomy' (i.e. not being reliant on the US or China) that has been advocated by some within the EU (notably Pres. Macron).
• Africa: Meeting of the G5 Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger) and France in a two-day summit in N'Djamena with French President Emmanuel Macron attending via videolink. The Sahel region has seen escalating violence from jihadi groups such as Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. France, as well as the UN, have increased their military presence in the region but this has so far proved insufficient to beat back the Islamists. The violence has displaced over 2 million in the region and is a key contributor to major migrant flows from the region northwards to Europe.
• Central and Eastern Europe: 30th anniversary of the establishment of the Visegrad Group. Formed of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia the group has become a notable force in EU politics and in recent years has often served as a socially conservative bulwark to the EU's more liberal policies.
• United States, Canada: Public holidays for Presidents' Day in US, Family Day and other holidays in Canada.
• China, Taiwan, Hong Kong: Public holidays for Lunar New Year. Golden week holiday in China, continues through to Thursday.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Feb 15-21.pdf