MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Mar 22-28

All timings subject to change.

Monday 22 March:

• China-Russia: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visits China on a two-day visit to hold talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. Lavrov's visit comes hot on the heels of the talks involving Wang, senior Communist Party official Yang Jiechi,
• US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in Anchorage, Alaska last week. Last week, China's ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui stated that Beijing would keep Moscow up to date with its policies towards the US.
• US-UK: Newly-confirmed US Trade Representative Katherine Tai is set to hold a phone call with UK International Trade Secretary Liz Truss to discuss how to provide impetus to talks on a US-UK trade deal. Work on the deal ground to a halt during the Biden administration's transition period, but the UK government in particular will be looking for swift progress. While Truss has stated that much of the work on the deal has already been completed, the prospect of an agreement being reached in 2021 remains slim.
• European Union:Foreign Affairs council meeting with member state foreign ministers joined by High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell. Ministers set to discuss relations with Turkey ahead of the EUCO meeting later in the week. Will also hold informal talks with UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet.
• Scotland:An independent inquiry into the conduct of First Minister Nicola Sturgeon could be published as early as today (if not then 23 March), with the outcome potentially having major ramifications for Scottish and UK politics. Should the inquiry report that Sturgeon broke the ministerial code in her actions regarding an investigation into former FM Alex Salmond, she could be forced to resign after seven years in office.
• South Africa: Public holiday for observance of Human Rights Day.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Mar 22-28.pdf