Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
In this article we bring you an update on yesterday's announcement that Pfizer and BioNTech have submitted a potential COVID-19 vaccine for emergency approval, as well as all of the data and charts usually included in our daily Global COVID-19 Tracker articles.
As has been covered extensively in the media, on 9 October, pharma giants Pfizer and BioNTech announced that a development vaccine they have produced for COVID-19 has been submitted to regulators for emergency approval. If granted, it means that the vaccine could be put to use by the end of November. The developers have stated that the vaccine is over 90% effective after tests on 43,500 subjects in six countries.
Subject to regulatory approval, the developers have said that it would be feasible to supply 50mn doses by end-2020, and 1.3bn by end-2021 (halve these numbers for the number of people who would be vaccinated, with each individual requiring two doses of the vaccine). While there is widespread and warranted positive feeling towards the potential for a vaccine, there are myriad logistical issues that at present have no answer, including:
- Which countries get the vaccine first?
- What sections of society are prioritised for vaccination?
- How are huge numbers of doses transported and stored given that it must be kept at below -70°c (far colder than facilities available in most local medical centres)?
- How long does immunity from COVID-19 last?
- What, if any, efficacy does the vaccine have for elderly people, the section of society most vulnerable to the effects of coronavirus?
Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)
Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0700BST November 10. N.b. Each dot represents a single day's figures, data for past three months
Political Risks Surrounding A Vaccine
While the potential for an effective vaccine is clearly a cause for relief and optimism worldwide, it would be imprudent to whitewash the risk of an escalation in political tensions at this time or in the coming months. There are two main channels for this risk: inter-national tensions, and intra-national tensions. For full article see PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – COVID-19 Vaccine-Relief Tempered By Reality.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.