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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The US state of Georgia remains in the political limelight as much in the first days of 2021 as it did in the latter stages of 2020, with both of the state's seats in the US Senate holding run-off elections today. In this article we assess why these two elections are gaining so much attention, why they are taking place, what way the elections could go, and at what point we may know the results.
Main Takeaways:
- The races are too close to call on election day. Opinion polls put both races as near neck-and-neck. Betting markets show a small implied probability of the Republicans holding at least one of the seats, but the prospects of the Democrats taking both seats has increased in recent days and weeks.
- Should the Democrats win both seats it would give President Elect Joe Biden's party an effective majority in the Senate. With 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans Vice-President Elect Kamala Harris would cast the tie-breaking vote in the event of a 50-50 split.
- The result is unlikely to be crystal clear overnight, with a very large number of mail-in absentee ballots needing to be counted, slowing down the process. General estimates put a declaration within 48 hours of polls closing at 1900ET (0000GMT, 0100CET, 0800HKT).
Chart 1. Implied Probabilities of Outcome According to Betting Markets, %
Source: Betdata.io, MNI
For full article please see PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Crucial Georgia Run-Offs Too Close To Call.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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