MNI BRIEF: Bostic Says Fed Not In Rush To Cut To Neutral

MNI: FED'S BOSTIC-NEUTRAL RATE IS SOMEWHERE IN 3%-3.5% RANGE

MNI BRIEF: China To Support OBOR Via Foreign Exchange Reserves

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, October 18

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Challenges Of House And Equity Markets

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Launches CNY300bln Stock Buy-back Facility

MNI: US SEP TREASURY BUDGET $64.3B

MNI: US SEP HOUSING STARTS 1.354M; PERMITS 1.428M

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: IT, SL, EU, BE, BoE APF on Monday

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Faces More Pressure To Resign

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI POLITICAL RISK - Elections Weekly: The Dead Heat Election

Weekly snapshot of the US Elections.
EM BulletFixed Income BulletsHomepagemarkets-real-timePolitical RiskCommoditiesPolitical Risk BulletEnergy BulletsBulletPower BulletsMarketsStoryForeign Exchange Bullets

Executive summary:

  • The primary theme of the week is the same as last week: Polling and data-driven models project a too-close-to-call race, but there is some big money betting on a Trump win. 
  • YouGov's second multilevel regression with poststratification model gives Harris a slight edge over Trump.
  • Pollsters believe that they have identified the problems that caused polling errors in 2016 and 2020, but there is a lingering concern that Trump's name on the ballot may make polling particularly difficult.  
  • The Washington Post is the latest outlet to examine the possibility that Trump's Electoral College advantage may be disappearing.
  • The data-driven elections models have moved closer to a dead heat.
  • The surge towards Trump on prediction markets continued this week. Polymarket, in particular, has seen a major influx of cash pushing Trump’s implied probability of winning above 60%. 

Please find the full article attached below: US Elections Weekly

146 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Executive summary:

  • The primary theme of the week is the same as last week: Polling and data-driven models project a too-close-to-call race, but there is some big money betting on a Trump win. 
  • YouGov's second multilevel regression with poststratification model gives Harris a slight edge over Trump.
  • Pollsters believe that they have identified the problems that caused polling errors in 2016 and 2020, but there is a lingering concern that Trump's name on the ballot may make polling particularly difficult.  
  • The Washington Post is the latest outlet to examine the possibility that Trump's Electoral College advantage may be disappearing.
  • The data-driven elections models have moved closer to a dead heat.
  • The surge towards Trump on prediction markets continued this week. Polymarket, in particular, has seen a major influx of cash pushing Trump’s implied probability of winning above 60%. 

Please find the full article attached below: US Elections Weekly