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MNI POLITICAL RISK - Elections Weekly: The Dead Heat Election

Weekly snapshot of the US Elections.
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Executive summary:

  • The primary theme of the week is the same as last week: Polling and data-driven models project a too-close-to-call race, but there is some big money betting on a Trump win. 
  • YouGov's second multilevel regression with poststratification model gives Harris a slight edge over Trump.
  • Pollsters believe that they have identified the problems that caused polling errors in 2016 and 2020, but there is a lingering concern that Trump's name on the ballot may make polling particularly difficult.  
  • The Washington Post is the latest outlet to examine the possibility that Trump's Electoral College advantage may be disappearing.
  • The data-driven elections models have moved closer to a dead heat.
  • The surge towards Trump on prediction markets continued this week. Polymarket, in particular, has seen a major influx of cash pushing Trump’s implied probability of winning above 60%. 

Please find the full article attached below: US Elections Weekly

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Executive summary:

  • The primary theme of the week is the same as last week: Polling and data-driven models project a too-close-to-call race, but there is some big money betting on a Trump win. 
  • YouGov's second multilevel regression with poststratification model gives Harris a slight edge over Trump.
  • Pollsters believe that they have identified the problems that caused polling errors in 2016 and 2020, but there is a lingering concern that Trump's name on the ballot may make polling particularly difficult.  
  • The Washington Post is the latest outlet to examine the possibility that Trump's Electoral College advantage may be disappearing.
  • The data-driven elections models have moved closer to a dead heat.
  • The surge towards Trump on prediction markets continued this week. Polymarket, in particular, has seen a major influx of cash pushing Trump’s implied probability of winning above 60%. 

Please find the full article attached below: US Elections Weekly