MNI POLITICAL RISK - Harris Puts In Assured Debate Performance

Executive summary:

• The consensus view amongst pundits is that Vice President Kamala Harris comfortably won her first presidential debate with former President Donald Trump.
• In stark contrast to Biden’s faltering debate performance in June, Harris effectively controlled the tone of the debate right from the start, when she demonstrably shook hands with Trump. Whereas Trump appeared composed next to Biden, Harris’ needling unsettled Trump to the extent he missed opportunities to land effective attacks on Harris’ vulnerabilities.
• Trump’s most effective argument, that Harris is the incumbent of an unpopular administration, was largely left until his closing statement – too late in the 90-minute debate.
• Several informal indicators turned bearish on Trump. Political prediction markets reversed the recent trend towards Trump, with Harris now appearing in her strongest position since mid-August.
• Taylor Swift issued an endorsement for Harris that could firm up support amongst women and young voters, two key blocs that need to turn out strongly for Harris to offset her weakness with male voters.
• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) discharged his government funding package from the House Rules Committee but faces an uphill battle to get the bill through the House today.
• President Biden could lift his administration's ban on Ukraine firing Western-made long-range missiles at military targets in the Russian Federation.
• Poll of the Day: YouGov's first MRP model shows Harris slightly ahead in a toss-up race.

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