MNI BRIEF: Inflation Now Consistent With Target-EC Dombrovskis

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, November 4

MNI BRIEF: Key China Steel Province's PMI Up Sharply In Oct

MNI NBP WATCH: CPI, Core Point To First Cut In Q2 2025

RPT-MNI POLICY: Mexico FX Intervention Only In Market Disorder

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY224.3 Bln via OMO Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

MNI: US SEP FACTORY ORDERS -0.5%; EX-TRANSPORT NEW ORDERS +0.1%

MNI: EUROZONE OCT FINAL MANUF PMI 46.0 (FLASH 45.9); SEP 45.0

EUROPEAN FISCAL: DE 2025 Budget Gap Grows; Political Risk Is Rising

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Facing More Internal Dissent And Departures

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Faces More Pressure To Resign

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI POLITICAL RISK - Iowa Poll Spikes Democrat Enthusiasm

Daily round-up of news from the US.
USEM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timePolitical RiskCommoditiesPolitical Risk BulletPower BulletsGlobalStoryEnergy BulletsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America

Executive summary:

  • Time is running out to collect last-minute votes and drive turnout in swing states. Vice President Kamala Harris is on the trail today in Pennsylvania. Donald Trump is holding four rallies in three states.
  • One day out from Election Day, the presidential race has undergone another ‘vibe shift’, largely on the back of a poll from Ann Selzer, one of the most respected pollsters in the country, giving Harris a three-percentage-point lead in Iowa.
  • It hard to understate the buzz around the Iowa poll. Selzer has an unparalleled record of accurately calling elections during challenging cycles. Of course, consistently beating the market is statistically unlikely and the poll comes with a range of caveats including the possibilty of an Iowa-specific GOP backlash.
  • Elsewhere, the polling outlook is muddier. The final slate of NYT/Siena College polls show a counterintuitive shift, with Trump showing increased strength in the Rust Belt and Harris gaining ground in the Sun Belt. As the race remains within margin on error, anything from a Trump swing-state sweep to a Harris swing-state sweep is on the table, contingent on only a slight polling miss. 
  • Analysts have escalated warnings of pollster herding, particularly in the Rust Belt, where the consistently tight polling results are improbable.
  • The data-driven election forecast models continue to project a coin toss race. Four of the models tracked by MNI show a Trump edge, two show a Harris edge, and one shows a 50-50 race.
  • Political prediction markets have undergone a swing back to Harris following the Selzer poll.

Please find the full article attached below: US Daily Brief

261 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Executive summary:

  • Time is running out to collect last-minute votes and drive turnout in swing states. Vice President Kamala Harris is on the trail today in Pennsylvania. Donald Trump is holding four rallies in three states.
  • One day out from Election Day, the presidential race has undergone another ‘vibe shift’, largely on the back of a poll from Ann Selzer, one of the most respected pollsters in the country, giving Harris a three-percentage-point lead in Iowa.
  • It hard to understate the buzz around the Iowa poll. Selzer has an unparalleled record of accurately calling elections during challenging cycles. Of course, consistently beating the market is statistically unlikely and the poll comes with a range of caveats including the possibilty of an Iowa-specific GOP backlash.
  • Elsewhere, the polling outlook is muddier. The final slate of NYT/Siena College polls show a counterintuitive shift, with Trump showing increased strength in the Rust Belt and Harris gaining ground in the Sun Belt. As the race remains within margin on error, anything from a Trump swing-state sweep to a Harris swing-state sweep is on the table, contingent on only a slight polling miss. 
  • Analysts have escalated warnings of pollster herding, particularly in the Rust Belt, where the consistently tight polling results are improbable.
  • The data-driven election forecast models continue to project a coin toss race. Four of the models tracked by MNI show a Trump edge, two show a Harris edge, and one shows a 50-50 race.
  • Political prediction markets have undergone a swing back to Harris following the Selzer poll.

Please find the full article attached below: US Daily Brief