Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The prospect of a swift realisation of the US presidential election result is evaporating as results flood in across swing states. As the night unfolds, results across many swing states are likely to range back and forth based on whether postal and early in-person votes are being added to the total (disproportionately pro-Democrat) or if it is election day votes (disproportionately pro-Republican) that are being tallied up.
Chart 1. Electoral College Hexagram as of 0245GMT – Called by NYT
Source: NYT, Mapchart
As a result of the difference in how each state tallies up its votes there are likely to be some substantial delays in when certain swing states are called. With Florida likely to remain Republican red, and Trump also looking relatively good in Georgia and North Carolina, the states of the 'blue wall' around the Great Lakes are set to prove crucial. Reports have stated that Wisconsin is unlikely to release results until 0600 Central time (0700ET, 1200GMT), while Pennsylvania could take even longer to finalise who gets its 20 electoral college votes with some mail-in votes not being counted until tomorrow.
What is clear at present is that that the chances of a 'blue wave' coming to fruition early in the evening appear to have evaporated, although that is not to say that the Democrats cannot pick up the presidency and both the House and the Senate. The prospects of the Democrats taking the Senate is also reducing by the hour, as Republicans put in strong results in battleground races in Georgia and North Carolina.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.