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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
by Tom Lake
Latest Updates
Betting Market:
- Implied probability of a Biden win moves from 55.1% at last update on August 24 to 53.3% at the time of writing. In the same period, implied probability of a Trump win has risen from 42.9% to 45.2%.
Electoral College Projections:
- Total EC votes for Biden down to 262 according to 270ToWin, down from 278 on August 24. However, total Trump EC votes also down, from 169 to 119, with 157 votes now toss-ups.
- 538.com shifts 29 votes from Lean Biden to toss-up as it puts the state of Florida as a 50-50 contest. Still sees Biden as likely winner, gaining 278 EC votes even without toss-ups.
Nationwide Polling:
- Six polls since last update all show Biden leading, with an average 50.3% support to Trump's 41.3%. Narrowest poll shows Biden leading 46-45%.
State Polling:
- Two latest polls for Florida from August 22 and 23 continue to show Biden leading Donald Trump, although by narrowing margins. Poll for CNBC/Change (D) has Biden on 49% to Trump's 46%. This is compared to 50% for Biden and 44% for Trump in the pollster's August 9 survey.
- Conflicting polls from Wisconsin on August 23. Biden leads 49-44% in a CNBC/Change Research (D) poll, while Trump leads 46-45% in a Trafalgar Group (R) poll.
Chart 1. Electoral College Projections
Source: 270toWin, The Economist, FiveThirtyEight.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, MNI
Full article PDF attached below:
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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