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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Final Updates:
Electoral College Projections:
- Among the outlets projecting electoral college results, only one has anything other than a Joe Biden win without needing to win any toss-up states. RCP has 197 electoral college votes in the 'toss-up' category, including some states that are swinging firmly behind Biden such as Nevada, Minnesota, and Michigan.
- Predictit, which bases its projections on shifts in betting markets has Biden winning narrowly with 279 electoral college votes. The shifts towards Trump in the Predictit electoral college are likely spurred by bettors taking profit on their bets for Biden rather than large sums being placed on Trump.
Net Favourability:
- As the campaign comes to an end, Trump's net favourability has averaged around -12 over the last week of the campaign. This contrasts to Biden's net favourability of around +5.
- When compared to the 2016 election, in the last week of the campaign Hillary Clinton's net favourability stood at around -12 to Trump's -20.
Nationwide Polling:
- In the last week of the campaign, nationwide polling has shown a small narrowing of the margin between Trump and Biden, from around a 10% advantage for Biden in mid-October, to around 8% as of early November.
Chart 1. Electoral College Projections
Source: 270toWin, The Economist, 538.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, Decision Desk HQ, Plural Vote, Our Progress, MNI
Full article PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Election Polling Chartpack – Nov 3.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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