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MNI POLITICAL RISK-US Elections Weekly: Traders Turn On Harris

Weekly snapshot of the US elections.
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Executive Summary:

  • The presidential election race remains poised on a knife edge, but there has been some positive polling movement for Trump on the margins. The most noticeable action has been a surge towards Trump on prediction markets.  
  • A set of New York Times/Siena College polls provided more data to suggest that Trump’s electoral college advantage might be less pronounced this year than in previous cycles. The survey also hinted at a systemic error that may impact the accuracy of polling.
  • Trump appears to be closing the gap to Harris in the key northern battlegrounds – Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the latter likely to be the most important state of the cycle.
  • The number of voters rating the economy as an “extremely important” influence on their vote for president is the highest since October 2008.
  • Weak polling for Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) in Montana suggests the race for control of the Senate may be drifting further away from the Democrats.
  • Fluid partisan allegiances by gender and ethnicity could have an outsized role in determining who occupies the White House next year. 
  • PredictIt, long the most bullish prediction market on Harris, now shows Trump as favourite to win the election for the first time since late July.
  • Inside: A full round-up of notable news, polls, and prediction market data.

Please find the full article attached below: US Elections Weekly

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Executive Summary:

  • The presidential election race remains poised on a knife edge, but there has been some positive polling movement for Trump on the margins. The most noticeable action has been a surge towards Trump on prediction markets.  
  • A set of New York Times/Siena College polls provided more data to suggest that Trump’s electoral college advantage might be less pronounced this year than in previous cycles. The survey also hinted at a systemic error that may impact the accuracy of polling.
  • Trump appears to be closing the gap to Harris in the key northern battlegrounds – Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the latter likely to be the most important state of the cycle.
  • The number of voters rating the economy as an “extremely important” influence on their vote for president is the highest since October 2008.
  • Weak polling for Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) in Montana suggests the race for control of the Senate may be drifting further away from the Democrats.
  • Fluid partisan allegiances by gender and ethnicity could have an outsized role in determining who occupies the White House next year. 
  • PredictIt, long the most bullish prediction market on Harris, now shows Trump as favourite to win the election for the first time since late July.
  • Inside: A full round-up of notable news, polls, and prediction market data.

Please find the full article attached below: US Elections Weekly