Free Trial

MNI POLITICAL RISK-US Elections Weekly: Traders Turn On Harris

Weekly snapshot of the US elections.

Executive Summary:

  • The presidential election race remains poised on a knife edge, but there has been some positive polling movement for Trump on the margins. The most noticeable action has been a surge towards Trump on prediction markets.  
  • A set of New York Times/Siena College polls provided more data to suggest that Trump’s electoral college advantage might be less pronounced this year than in previous cycles. The survey also hinted at a systemic error that may impact the accuracy of polling.
  • Trump appears to be closing the gap to Harris in the key northern battlegrounds – Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the latter likely to be the most important state of the cycle.
  • The number of voters rating the economy as an “extremely important” influence on their vote for president is the highest since October 2008.
  • Weak polling for Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) in Montana suggests the race for control of the Senate may be drifting further away from the Democrats.
  • Fluid partisan allegiances by gender and ethnicity could have an outsized role in determining who occupies the White House next year. 
  • PredictIt, long the most bullish prediction market on Harris, now shows Trump as favourite to win the election for the first time since late July.
  • Inside: A full round-up of notable news, polls, and prediction market data.

Please find the full article attached below: US Elections Weekly

224 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Executive Summary:

  • The presidential election race remains poised on a knife edge, but there has been some positive polling movement for Trump on the margins. The most noticeable action has been a surge towards Trump on prediction markets.  
  • A set of New York Times/Siena College polls provided more data to suggest that Trump’s electoral college advantage might be less pronounced this year than in previous cycles. The survey also hinted at a systemic error that may impact the accuracy of polling.
  • Trump appears to be closing the gap to Harris in the key northern battlegrounds – Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the latter likely to be the most important state of the cycle.
  • The number of voters rating the economy as an “extremely important” influence on their vote for president is the highest since October 2008.
  • Weak polling for Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) in Montana suggests the race for control of the Senate may be drifting further away from the Democrats.
  • Fluid partisan allegiances by gender and ethnicity could have an outsized role in determining who occupies the White House next year. 
  • PredictIt, long the most bullish prediction market on Harris, now shows Trump as favourite to win the election for the first time since late July.
  • Inside: A full round-up of notable news, polls, and prediction market data.

Please find the full article attached below: US Elections Weekly