Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The US sits in a period of limbo as officials continue to count votes in key swing states that are set to decide whether Donald Trump remains in office or if Joe Biden takes over. The slow counts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania mean that there is still major uncertainty as to who will win the election. At the time of writing, President Donald Trump holds leads Michigan and Pennsylvania, as well as Georgia, but there are still a large number of votes to count.
Chart 1. Electoral College Map, With Four Toss-Up States Included
Source: 270toWin, MNI
What Are The Paths To A Trump Second Term?
On the assumption that North Carolina goes Republican, Donald Trump would need to win three of the four states highlighted above to cross the 270 electoral college vote threshold. Trump won all of these states in 2016. At present Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan look like Trump's best path to victory. In Georgia, 92% of votes have been counted and the president holds a lead of 101,812 votes. In Pennsylvania his lead is 704,939 with an estimated 74% of votes reported. Finally, in Michigan he leads by 245,233 votes with 77% of votes counted.
What Are The Paths To A Biden Win?
Of the states listed at the top of the page, Biden would only need to flip two in order to gain the requisite votes to cross the 270 electoral college vote threshold. As outlined above, Trump holds a lead in all of the states listed but each have a sizeable number of absentee and postal ballots still to report. In Pennsylvania, Biden is reliant on garnering an overwhelming share of votes in Philadelphia and Allegheny County surrounding Pittsburgh.
In Georgia, returns in Fulton and DeKalb Counties surrounding the city of Atlanta. In Michigan, Wayne County around the city of Detroit has only returned 43% of its estimated votes. Finally, in Wisconsin only 77% of estimated votes have been reported in Milwaukee County, which is also expected to lean heavily towards Biden.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.