MNI BRIEF: China CPI Expected To Rise Moderately - NBS

MNI BRIEF: China Aug Output, Investment Hit Lowest Of The Year

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY138.7 Bln via OMO Saturday

CHINA AUG INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +4.5% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +4.6% Y/Y: NBS

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY138.7 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS SAT

MNI BRIEF: Turkish Central Bank Sees Further Disinflation

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Slovakia Auction, BoE APF on Monday

MNI BRIEF: China Aug M1 Drops Further To Hit Record Low

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

UK: Week Ahead

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MNI POV # 1: The ECB Is Crystal Clear: It's Time To Act

ECB
  • The ECB is now clear that the APP will end in early July, policy rate lift-off will occur later in the same month and policy rates will reach zero by September.
  • While GC members have signalled consensus around President Lagarde's recent blog post (signposting the path for policy normalisation in the coming months), there seems to be some disagreement over whether policy normalisation is recognition that negative rates are no longer appropriate (but that some degree of policy support is still necessary), or whether it should usher in a significantly more restrictive monetary policy.
  • As such, while a 50bp hike in July is a low risk scenario, it is nonetheless a risk. However, the probability is rising of a one-off 50bp hike or series of such hikes from September onward.
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