MNI POV: From most to least likely, surprises...>

FED: MNI POV: From most to least likely, surprises the FOMC could spring today:

- IOER Hike: With the effective funds rate dipping as low as 0.04% this week, a

5bps increase in the interest rate paid on excess reserves is very possible. As

it's done before, the Fed should be able to paint this as technical, not policy.

- Facilities Maintenance: The FOMC could tweak its yet-to-be-launched

facilities, for instance extending its Main Street lending program to nonprofits

and/or improving the terms to borrowers before launch. Even Powell simply

providing more specifics (ie timing and scope) on facilities like PMCCF and

SMCCF would have an impact - expectations for getting details today seem low.

- Stronger Forward Guidance: Former Fed officials suggested to our Policy team

that the statement could at least adjust language that it will maintain rates

until it is "on track" to meet the dual mandate, and could go as far as setting

explicit targets for inflation/unemployment.

- Yield Curve Control: This would be a big surprise (esp given subtle pushback

by Powell in Q&A on April 9), most likely focused on the short end of the yield

curve and associated with strengthened forward guidance.