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U.S. consumer inflation expectations were largely stable in September but households grew slightly more pessimistic about credit conditions and their ability to make minimum debt payments, the New York Fed said in its monthly consumer survey.
Median inflation expectations rose 0.1 percentage point and 0.2 pp at the one- and three-year-ahead horizons to 3.7% and 3.0%, respectively, according to the bank's Survey of Consumer Expectations. At the five-year ahead horizon, median expectations decreased 0.2 pp to 2.8%. Median home price growth expectations decreased to 3.0% from 3.1% in August, while year-ahead expected college costs decreased sharply to 5.8% from 8.2%.
Labor market expectations were mixed with unemployment expectations rising but perceived job loss risk improving. Households' perceptions and expectations for credit conditions deteriorated slightly. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.4 pp to 12.5%, the highest reading since May 2020. The increase was largest for respondents below the age of 40, with some college education, and those with an annual household income below USD50k.
Source: New York Fed
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.