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MNI Projects 2.3-2.4% National CPI Y/Y, Core CPI Flat Around 3.0%

GERMAN DATA
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From state-level data that equates to 86.7% weighting of the national May flash German CPI print (due at 13:00 BST / 14:00 CET), MNI estimates that national CPI (non-HICP print) rose by 0.0-0.1% M/M (April: 0.5%) and 2.3-2.4% Y/Y (April: 2.2%).

  • Analyst consensus currently stands at 0.2% M/M and 2.4% Y/Y so this would represent a lower reading than had been expected on the monthly comparison (but broadly in line Y/Y).
  • Current tracking of core CPI (ex-energy and food, based on 50% of the national index) implies 3.0% Y/Y (3.0% in April) and 0.2-0.3% M/M, per our calcualtions.
  • The transport category, which is in focus this month as per a base effect on a subsidized rail ticket which was introduced a year ago falling out of the yearly comparison, printed broadly around 2.6% Y/Y (vs +0.9% April), our calculations imply.
  • This suggests an acceleration in the services component to around 3.9% Y/Y (vs 3.4% prior), based on 50% of the national index.
  • We will provide a follow-up bullet looking at underlying drivers in due course.
  • Note: These estimates are in relation to the national CPI print, not the HICP print which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets. The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.


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From state-level data that equates to 86.7% weighting of the national May flash German CPI print (due at 13:00 BST / 14:00 CET), MNI estimates that national CPI (non-HICP print) rose by 0.0-0.1% M/M (April: 0.5%) and 2.3-2.4% Y/Y (April: 2.2%).

  • Analyst consensus currently stands at 0.2% M/M and 2.4% Y/Y so this would represent a lower reading than had been expected on the monthly comparison (but broadly in line Y/Y).
  • Current tracking of core CPI (ex-energy and food, based on 50% of the national index) implies 3.0% Y/Y (3.0% in April) and 0.2-0.3% M/M, per our calcualtions.
  • The transport category, which is in focus this month as per a base effect on a subsidized rail ticket which was introduced a year ago falling out of the yearly comparison, printed broadly around 2.6% Y/Y (vs +0.9% April), our calculations imply.
  • This suggests an acceleration in the services component to around 3.9% Y/Y (vs 3.4% prior), based on 50% of the national index.
  • We will provide a follow-up bullet looking at underlying drivers in due course.
  • Note: These estimates are in relation to the national CPI print, not the HICP print which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets. The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.


Keep reading...Show less