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MNI Projects National CPI At 6.1-6.2% Y/Y

GERMAN DATA

We have now received state data that equates to 86.7% weighting of the national German CPI print (due at 1300 BST / 1400 CET).

  • MNI calculations estimate that national CPI rose by 0.34% m/m and 6.14% y/y. This is based on the published index values for available state data. The data implies readings above expectations for the y/y print of 6.0%, rounded to 0.3% m/m and 6.1% y/y.
  • This would mark a slight deceleration from 6.2% Y/Y in July, though the final rounded figure could yet end up at 6.2% depending on how the final state readings come out.
  • Today's state data points to core CPI of 5.4% Y/Y, vs 5.5% in July. Core CPI data is only available for 3 states accounting for 45.7% of the headline index. Core inflation in North Rhine Westphalia, Hesse and Bavaria fell between 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points in August compared to July.
  • There is no BBG consensus print for core CPI but Morgan Stanley forecast 5.5% Y/Y so we would say roughly in line, perhaps slightly soft.
  • Note: these estimates are in relation to the national CPI print, not the HICP print which feeds into the Eurozone HICP print that the ECB targets. The magnitude of surprises to consensus can sometimes be different due to the different methodologies and weights used in national CPI vs HICP - but the direction of the surprise is normally the same.
Y/YAugust (reported)July (reported)Difference
North Rhine Westphalia5.9%5.8%0.1%
Hesse6.0%6.1%-0.1%
Bavaria5.9%6.1%-0.2%
Brandenburg7.1%6.7%0.4%
Baden Wuert.7.0%6.8%0.2%
Berlin6.3%6.1%0.2%
Saxony6.8%6.7%0.1%
Rhineland-Palatinate5.6%6.1%-0.5%
Lower Saxony6.0%6.0%0.0%
Saarland6.0%5.9%0.1%
Weighted average: 6.14%for 86.7%
M/MAugust (reported)July (reported)Difference
North Rhine Westphalia0.5%0.2%0.3%
Hesse0.2%0.3%-0.1%
Bavaria0.3%0.4%-0.1%
Brandenburg0.7%0.3%0.4%
Baden Wuert.0.3%0.2%0.1%
Berlin0.3%0.2%0.1%
Saxony0.3%0.3%0.0%
Rhineland-Palatinate0.3%0.3%0.0%
Lower Saxony0.3%0.3%0.0%
Saarland0.4%0.3%0.1%
Weighted average: 0.34%for 86.7%
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