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MNI RBA Preview - August 2024: Need More Time To Be Confident

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Given that Q2 CPI printed broadly in line with the RBA’s May forecasts and other developments since the June meeting have also been close to their thinking, we do not expect a change in rates or statement guidance when the meeting decision is announced on Tuesday August 6. It will include an update of the staff forecasts.
  • The Board is likely to maintain its flexibility that it won't rule "anything in or out" and also that it will "remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation".
  • With Q2 inflation printing in line or above the RBA’s May forecasts, it is still too early to discuss rate cuts and a hike is likely to remain part of the August discussion. Easing won’t be an option until the Board is “confident that inflation is moving sustainably toward the target”.
  • Terminal rate expectations have fallen back to 4.32%, similar to levels seen in the run-up to June’s RBA Policy Meeting, down from 4.42% before Q2 CPI data.

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RBA Preview - August 2024.pdf

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