MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, May 13

MNI BRIEF: Beijing Reveals 2024 Bond Issuance Plan

MNI BRIEF: BOJ Cuts Scale Of 5-10 Year JGB Buying By JPY50 Bln

RPT-MNI POLICY:BCB Dissenters Feared Reaction Function Misstep

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Mon; Liquidity Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1030 Mon; -4.18% Y/Y

MNI UK Labour Market Preview - May 2024 Release

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU, IT Syndis; NE, UK, DE Due Tuesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Spain, Finland Auction on Tuesday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI RBA Preview - March 2024: No Reason To Pivot In March

The RBA meets on March 19, six weeks since the last meeting, and is unanimously expected to leave rates at 4.35%.

Central Bank PreviewHomepageRBA - PreviewCentral Bank ReportsMarkets

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The RBA meets on March 19, six weeks since the last meeting, and is unanimously expected to leave rates at 4.35%. We expect some form of tightening bias to be retained in March as the data since the last meeting has been broadly in line with the RBA’s projections, while the significant uncertainties discussed last month have not dissipated and the risks are still “broadly balanced”. Thus the meeting statement will probably be little changed compared with February.
  • It is unlikely that this month the Board will feel confident enough that inflation will return sustainably to target to shift to neutral. A change now may signal that the inflation fight is won and result in easier financial conditions and may encourage the government to provide additional stimulus in its May budget at a time when inflation is still domestically driven and above the band.
  • Q1 CPI data prints on April 24 and the next meeting on May 7 will include a new set of projections. So, if there was to be a change in tone or shift to neutral, it can wait until that meeting, but it will be highly dependent on the quarterly CPI results.

Click to view full preview here:

RBA Preview - March 2024.pdf


215 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The RBA meets on March 19, six weeks since the last meeting, and is unanimously expected to leave rates at 4.35%. We expect some form of tightening bias to be retained in March as the data since the last meeting has been broadly in line with the RBA’s projections, while the significant uncertainties discussed last month have not dissipated and the risks are still “broadly balanced”. Thus the meeting statement will probably be little changed compared with February.
  • It is unlikely that this month the Board will feel confident enough that inflation will return sustainably to target to shift to neutral. A change now may signal that the inflation fight is won and result in easier financial conditions and may encourage the government to provide additional stimulus in its May budget at a time when inflation is still domestically driven and above the band.
  • Q1 CPI data prints on April 24 and the next meeting on May 7 will include a new set of projections. So, if there was to be a change in tone or shift to neutral, it can wait until that meeting, but it will be highly dependent on the quarterly CPI results.

Click to view full preview here:

RBA Preview - March 2024.pdf