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MNI RBA Preview - March 2024: No Reason To Pivot In March

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The RBA meets on March 19, six weeks since the last meeting, and is unanimously expected to leave rates at 4.35%. We expect some form of tightening bias to be retained in March as the data since the last meeting has been broadly in line with the RBA’s projections, while the significant uncertainties discussed last month have not dissipated and the risks are still “broadly balanced”. Thus the meeting statement will probably be little changed compared with February.
  • It is unlikely that this month the Board will feel confident enough that inflation will return sustainably to target to shift to neutral. A change now may signal that the inflation fight is won and result in easier financial conditions and may encourage the government to provide additional stimulus in its May budget at a time when inflation is still domestically driven and above the band.
  • Q1 CPI data prints on April 24 and the next meeting on May 7 will include a new set of projections. So, if there was to be a change in tone or shift to neutral, it can wait until that meeting, but it will be highly dependent on the quarterly CPI results.

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RBA Preview - March 2024.pdf


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