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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- While inflation showed no signs of slowing in Q3, recent RBA commentary gives many reasons why it is likely to stick to 25bp in November rather than return to a 50bp move. As a result, we expect rates to rise to 2.85% at this meeting from 2.6%.
- There is a risk though that the RBA hikes 50bp on November 1, on the back of CPI inflation rising to its highest since mid-1990 in Q3 and a clear pick-up in domestically-driven price pressures.
- Market pricing has shifted up since the October meeting and there's about 30bp priced for the November meeting with a terminal rate of just under 4% in August 2023.
- Click to view full preview:
RBA Preview - November 2022.pdf
Fig. 1 The Recent Evolution Of Market Pricing Of The RBA Cash Rate (%)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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