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MNI RBA Review - April 2023: April Pause, Tightening Bias Intact

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The RBA left rates unchanged at 3.6% at its April 4 meeting, after ten consecutive hikes worth 350bp. While it softened the tone of the statement, it retained its tightening bias. The Board decided to pause due to numerous indicators signalling a peak in inflation, a slowdown in consumption, the tightening of global financial conditions and to give it more time to "assess the impact" of previous tightening.
  • The language around future rate hikes was moderated to "may well be needed" from "will be needed", thus keeping the RBA's options open. But it said "when" rates will need to rise rather than "if". As a result, future meeting outcomes are going to be extremely data dependent with May hinging on the Q1 CPI report (April 26) and updated RBA forecasts.

Click to view full review:

RBA Review - April 2023.pdf

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