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MNI RBA Review - July 2023: Pause Doesn’t Mean Hiking Done

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The RBA Board decided to hold rates at 4.1% at its July meeting in what would have been a very “finely balanced” decision. The tightening bias was retained though (“some further tightening”), and the inflation warnings remained signalling that rate hikes are unlikely to be over yet.
  • It decided to pause to have time “to assess the state of the economy and the economic outlook and associated risks” given the “uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook”.
  • Given the tightening bias, updated forecasts and upcoming Q2 CPI, including services, due July 26, another tightening on August 1 is a distinct possibility. Governor Lowe’s speech on July 12 may give an indication as to how concerned the central bank still is about inflation.

See full review here:

RBA Review - July 2023.pdf

Central Bank ReviewHomepageRBA -ReviewCentral Bank ReportsMarkets

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