MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, May 14

MNI BRIEF: Pan-EU Financial Product A First CMU Step - Belgium

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Tues; Liquidity Unchanged

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1053 Tues; -4.08% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS TUES

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1053 TUES VS 7.1030

PES Unemployment Data Consistent With Gradual Cooling

US NFIB APR SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 89.7

Services Drive Core HICP Disinflation In April

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI RBA Review – March 2024: Uncertainties Require Options

The RBA left rates at 4.35% as was unanimously expected. While much of the statement was little changed, there was a shift away from the central bank’s tightening bias.

Central Bank ReviewHomepageRBA -ReviewCentral Bank ReportsMarkets

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The RBA left rates at 4.35% as was unanimously expected. The reference to the possibility of increasing rates further was removed but given the highly uncertain outlook, the Board is “not ruling anything in or out”. The statement and press conference taken together imply that the shift was made not because the next move in rates is down, but because there are significant uncertainties and the Board wants the flexibility to act as it needs to.
  • Governor Bullock said that the economy remains on the expected and “narrow path”, suggesting a high probability of a prolonged hold. Bullock strongly conveyed that rates could still move either way depending on inflation outcomes and currently there are risks in both directions.
  • Inflation worries persist, with services continuing to be front and centre but also elevated unit labour costs were mentioned. Bullock said that inflation continues to be her main concern.
  • The next meeting is not until May 7 which will include updated staff forecasts and Q1 CPI data due on April 24. While currently neither are likely to alter the rule “anything in or out” position, given elevated uncertainties, that could change.

Click to view full review:

RBA Review - March 2024.pdf

207 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The RBA left rates at 4.35% as was unanimously expected. The reference to the possibility of increasing rates further was removed but given the highly uncertain outlook, the Board is “not ruling anything in or out”. The statement and press conference taken together imply that the shift was made not because the next move in rates is down, but because there are significant uncertainties and the Board wants the flexibility to act as it needs to.
  • Governor Bullock said that the economy remains on the expected and “narrow path”, suggesting a high probability of a prolonged hold. Bullock strongly conveyed that rates could still move either way depending on inflation outcomes and currently there are risks in both directions.
  • Inflation worries persist, with services continuing to be front and centre but also elevated unit labour costs were mentioned. Bullock said that inflation continues to be her main concern.
  • The next meeting is not until May 7 which will include updated staff forecasts and Q1 CPI data due on April 24. While currently neither are likely to alter the rule “anything in or out” position, given elevated uncertainties, that could change.

Click to view full review:

RBA Review - March 2024.pdf