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MNI RBA Review - May 2022: Curveball

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The RBA delivered a larger than consensus 25bp hike, accompanied by a sharp move higher in its projected inflation track. The Bank flagged more notable wage growth unearthed via its liaison scheme, after Q122 CPI data provided clear signals re: strengthening upward price pressures, pushing the RBA into action ahead of the Q122 WPI print.
  • RBA reference points re: the cash rate were still more modest than market expectations, with further cash rate tightening priced in post-decision.
  • Most of the sell-side have discussed the possibility of a 40bp rate hike in June, which would remove the entirety of the emergency rate cuts delivered in March 2020.
  • Click to view full review: MNI RBA Review - May 2022.pdf

Fig. 1: The Evolution Of Cash Rate Expectations in ‘22

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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