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AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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MNI RBA Review - October 2023: Pause, Forecasts Key To November Decision

RBA
  • The RBA left rates unchanged at 4.1% for the fourth consecutive time. This was Michele Bullock’s first meeting as Governor and the little changed statement says something in itself - for now it is business as usual.
  • Fuel prices were mentioned in the September minutes but this month they appeared in the statement too having “risen noticeably”. Another addition to the statement was the recognition that H1 growth had been stronger than projected but the RBA still expects it to be below trend.
  • The Board retained its tightening bias and so has kept its options open for the November 7 decision given there will be updated forecasts and Q3 CPI due on October 25. Q2 2025 CPI is currently expected to be 3.1% but given that this is the boundary of the RBA’s “reasonable timeframe” an upward revision could be enough to drive another rate hike. So could a strong Q3 services CPI reading. A near-term upward revision to the CPI will be acceptable if 2025 is unchanged.
  • Terminal rate expectations have only softened by 2bps to 4.34%. Accordingly, they remain approximately 20bps higher than early September and are at their highest level since late July.
  • See full review here.
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