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MNI RBI Preview - February 2024: On Hold, But Scope To Shift To Neutral

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The consensus and our own strong bias is for no change at tomorrow's RBI policy meeting. There will be more focus on the central bank's policy stance. We see a risk they shift to neutral from 'withdrawal of accommodation', although this will be a close call, with risks the RBI maintains the status quo.
  • The sharp drop in core inflation pressures, the domestic liquidity deficit and fiscal consolidation, point to a more neutral RBI outlook. If the RBI doesn't shift its policy stance at this meeting we suspect it will do so at the next (most likely in April).
  • Full preview here:
  • RBI Preview - February 2024.pdf


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