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MNI RBNZ Preview - July 2022: Harsh Braking

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • New Zealand's GDP unexpectedly contracted in Q1 as COVID-19 swept across the nation for the first time, while a suite of leading indicators highlighted intensifying headwinds to the growth outlook.
  • Still, data on inflation expectations and pricing intentions, as well as evidence that the labour market remains extremely tight, suggest that the RBNZ still has much work to do before fulfilling its mandate.
  • There is broad consensus that the Reserve Bank will hike the OCR by another 50bp on Wednesday, continuing its fight against runaway inflation despite worrying ramifications for growth.
  • There will be no updated forecasts or press conference, which gives the Committee time to keep implementing its well-defined "stitch in time" strategy for now, before revisiting its fundamental assumptions in August.

Click here to see the full preview: MNI RBNZ Preview July 2022.pdf

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