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MNI RBNZ Preview-November 2024: 50bp Closer To Neutral

The RBNZ is widely expected to cut rates 50bp at its November meeting that includes updated staff forecasts.
Central Bank PreviewNew ZealandRBNZ - PreviewCentral Bank ReportsAPACStoryMarkets

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

  • The RBNZ is widely expected to cut rates 50bp at its November meeting that also includes updated staff forecasts. The discussion could be centred around 25bp, 50bp or even 75bp of easing though.
  • Inflation is in the RBNZ's target band, and weak growth & excess capacity persist, and so there is no reason to slowdown to 25bp. Monthly data are signalling that while the economy is still soft, it may be stabilising, and so there is no need to panic and cut by 75bp.  
  • The updated OCR projections should give an indication if the RBNZ is considering slowing the pace of easing in H1 2025.
  • The market currently anticipates a 55bp cut at tomorrow's policy meeting, with a cumulative 98bps of easing by February and 147bps by July.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: MNI RBNZ Preview - November 2024.pdf

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

  • The RBNZ is widely expected to cut rates 50bp at its November meeting that also includes updated staff forecasts. The discussion could be centred around 25bp, 50bp or even 75bp of easing though.
  • Inflation is in the RBNZ's target band, and weak growth & excess capacity persist, and so there is no reason to slowdown to 25bp. Monthly data are signalling that while the economy is still soft, it may be stabilising, and so there is no need to panic and cut by 75bp.  
  • The updated OCR projections should give an indication if the RBNZ is considering slowing the pace of easing in H1 2025.
  • The market currently anticipates a 55bp cut at tomorrow's policy meeting, with a cumulative 98bps of easing by February and 147bps by July.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: MNI RBNZ Preview - November 2024.pdf