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MNI RBNZ Review - April 2024: On Hold, Awaiting Further Data

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The RBNZ's April monetary policy decision delivered few surprises. The central bank noted: "Overall, members agreed that the balance of risks was little changed since the February Statement."
  • The April policy meeting doesn’t deliver forecast updates, or a press conference. Hence it arguably saw little need to shift the tone of its statement ahead of the next policy meeting on the 22nd of May, particularly as the balanced of risks were seen as little changed relative to the February policy meeting.
  • All in all, the RBNZ clearly sees it as being too early for a dovish shift in terms of the outlook. Whilst the bar to hike further is clearly elevated, the statement didn't give any hints that the restrictive policy stance will be changed in the near term. Ahead of the next policy meeting we have some key data points. Q1 CPI prints on Apr 17, so next Wednesday. Wages and employment figures are out on May 1, then inflation expectations on May 13.

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MNI RBNZ Review April 2024.pdf

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