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MNI RBNZ Review - November 2021: Cautious Hike

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The RBNZ raised the OCR by 25bp and forecast a steeper tightening path. They now expect the key policy rate to climb faster, surpass the neutral level of 2% and move into contractionary territory.
  • The Committee's assessment of inflation and labour market outlook turned more hawkish, which was reflected in their commentary and upgrades to economic forecasts. This was no surprise in light of the recent run of strong data prints.
  • Nonetheless, the MPC said they opted against a more aggressive 50bp hike (thus disappointing some market hawks) and expressed preference for moving in more cautious, measured steps, which implies a smoother tightening trajectory.

Click here to view the full review: MNI RBNZ Review November 2021.pdf

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