MNI REALITY CHECK: Australia July Retail Sales Expected Higher

Australian retail sales are expected to have show continued improvement in July, as the national recovery continues, with the possible exception of the state of Victoria which went back into lockdown that month.

Melbourne's lockdown, however, is expected to underpin the surge in online sales which have characterized the sector this year. Most other retail remains closed across the state.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release full data for July on Sept 4, following on from the earlier released preliminary data that showed a 3.3% rise in retail turnover. That data was compiled from the monthly Retail Business Survey based on businesses which make up 80% of total turnover and is therefore subject to revision. The market is expecting a similar result tomorrow.

Retail sales slumped 17.7% in April on a month-on-month basis as the economy went into lockdown after a surprise 8.5% rise in March due to panic buying at supermarkets. May sales were up 16.9% while June improved a slower 2.7%.

Ruslan Kogam CEO at Kogan.com, was upbeat about the surge in online retailers.

"There is a retail revolution taking place as more and more shoppers learn about the benefits of eCommerce. We're seeing record numbers of first time customers, who then go on to make repeat purchases at a 40% faster pace than previously. After almost 15 years of preparation, the revolution occurring in retail represents a significant opportunity for Kogan.com."

RENEE SMITH. SPOKESPERSON, ROYAL AUTOMOBILE CLUB OF QUEENSLAND

Auto fuel prices fell in parts of the country, despite solid continuing demand from industry for diesel.

"Since March this year there's been a substantial fall in the retail price of unleaded (ULP) and diesel (DSL) in south east Queensland (SEQ) and regional Queensland, says Renee Smith, a spokesperson for the Royal Automobile Club of Queensland.

"We saw bigger falls in the price of ULP than DSL. DSL remained stronger because demand from industry remained relatively healthy compared to ULP which is largely the fuel of private motorists and was affected by restrictions," she added.

On the supply-side the OPEC+ production cut agreement is still in place and US shale oil production has not restarted yet, meaning US oil production is down substantially on pre-COVID levels. This has resulted in a stable oil price, reflected in Queensland retail prices, especially in SEQ, where there was little difference between ULP and DSL prices in July and August. Regional prices were slightly down in August compared to July, but the fall was small"

As the summer comes to an end, even the hospitality sector has seen a pick up.

"It's been a roller coaster, but we're really busy again. Business seems to be driven by sentiment. When the lockdown ended a few months ago, we had some bumper nights and set records, then when there was a scare people stayed away. New Covid-19 cases have been down in recent weeks and people are out and our business has been strong." Sophie Otton, the owner of the She Loves You cocktail bar in Newtown, Sydney.