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MNI:REALITY CHECK PART 1: Nov Hiring Less Fiery Than Prior Mos

--Hiring Needs/Placements Differ By Industry, Region, Staffing Level
--Nov/Dec Seen As 'Pause,' Most Upbeat About 2018 Prospects
By Vicki Schmelzer
     NEW YORK (MNI) - Job demand and placements were solid again in November but
differed by industry, region, and staffing levels and were generally less fiery
than in prior months, according to recruiters interviewed for Market News
International's latest REALITY CHECK on U.S. employment trends.
     There was widespread agreement that any slowdown in postings and hires in
November and December should not be construed as the start of a new downtrend.
Indeed, recruiters and their clients remained upbeat about 2018 prospects. 
     "November was another strong month," albeit not "quite as strong as
October" and early December is showing modest signs of stalling also, said John
Calabrese, owner of the Mohawk Valley Express Employment Professionals office in
Utica, NY.
     After frenetic hiring earlier in 2017, the mild retreat in placements and
postings is more likely "businesses catching their breath and getting organized
for the new year," he said. 
     Looking ahead, "the feedback from our clients for 2018 is a lot of
optimism. They feel the hiring will continue at a really good pace," at least in
the first half of next year, Calabrese said. 
     Even though U.S. tax reform looks more believable than earlier in the year,
local businesses are not counting on anything just yet. 
     The thinking is that a lower U.S. corporate tax rate could create more
"breathing room for businesses, but I don't think they're adjusting their plans
yet due to any changes," he said. 
     "The good thing is, at least in our region, that there's expansion plans
that have been underway and continuing, so it doesn't temper those at all - they
are continuing and if this happens, I think it could be another boost for
additional expansion," Calabrese said.
     Given the ever-shrinking talent pool, recruiters have been forced to become
creative in their search for candidates and in their selling of the position at
hand. 
     "Companies have more orders and more opportunities than they've had before,
but what the challenge is - is where are you going to put 'em - where are you
going to find 'em?" said Eugene Lupario, chief executive at SVS Group in
Oakland, CA. 
     In areas such as San Francisco, where the cost of living is high, some
firms struggle to attract candidates, and in northern California, the top
contenders for positions are already working, he said. 
     In data released Nov. 17, the State of California put the state
unemployment rate at 4.3% in October (preliminary), but Alameda County, which
includes Oakland and Berkley, had a 3.4% unemployment rate and San Francisco
(both a city and a county) had a 2.7% unemployment rate. 
     With the local unemployment rate "being what it is - you are kind of moving
chess pieces around," Lupario said. 
     In order to attract and retain talent and get business done, employers need
to be "more creative" in their workforce, which could mean allowing employees
more flexible schedules and the ability to work remotely, he said.   
     These firms "are going to have to do something a little bit different if
they're going to increase productivity," Lupario said. 
     SVS Staffing has taken its own advice and in the last six months has
created a whole division to focus solely on vendor management system (VMS)
placements. (A VMS is a platform used by public and private companies for
workforce management.)
     By having everything on one platform, companies pay not only for the
ability to find and hire desirable candidates more quickly and seamlessly, but
also for the platform's objectivity in hiring, which keeps it "vender neutral,"
Lupario said. 
     "We have really started to develop this line of our business and we'll look
to that division as a real opportunity of growth for the company in 2018," he
said. 
     While the VMS division is going gangbusters, other divisions, especially
manufacturing and logistics, have seen more of the typical sluggishness usually
seen at year-end,
     "We just have to slog through the next four weeks," Lupario said. 
     On November postings and placements, "overall, we feel it's more of the
same and all good," said Deb Gray, owner of an Express franchise in the
Pittsburgh area. 
     In terms of industries, demand for hotel workers has calmed down, which is
typical into year end, but retail hiring needs have been higher, she said.
     Her office's introduction of a team devoted solely to 'skilled trades' has
been a great success, with "multiple clients fighting" over candidates, as both
sides become more aware of top-talent's worth. 
     One new phenomenon has been that prospective candidates, at the "mid to
slightly upper level," are increasingly more willing to speak with recruiters,
she said. 
     "We're reaching a more educated candidate. They're just savvy about what
they want and where they want to go," Gray said.
     These higher-level candidates are "responding quicker right now and
especially, if they are in a job," she said. 
     The same goes for employers who don't want to lose out on hiring a plum
candidate, even if they don't have an available position currently. 
     "Most will return calls or when we call them with a candidate that we think
might be unique. And even though we may not have an order from them, if we call
proactively saying, 'we came across a candidate like those that you've hired
from us before,' they want to hear about those candidates," said Reid Bates,
owner of Express offices in Olympia, Centralia, and Aberdeen, Washington.
     November and early December job postings and placements have been overall
"good," with a few speed bumps, he said. 
     Trying to fill an order, Express recruited candidates to fill warehouse
positions. When the client overestimated seasonal worker need, the jobseekers
were embraced by auto sector firms, which had an unexpected demand for workers. 
     "So, we have moved people around from what had been warehouse work for the
holidays to automotive processing," he said. 
     On last month's employment trends, Preet Kuar, Executive Recruiter and
Business Development Manager at Pacific Staffing in Sacramento, CA, told MNI,
"November was very steady for us."  
     So far in December, companies continue to interview candidates, with
activity "going strong," and there is no "sign of a major slowdown as expected"
for the holiday season, she said. 
     "I have a feeling that we're going to have a very good, solid first
quarter," Kuar said of 2018 prospects.
     One new trend in the Sacramento area, "we are starting to see regional
offices pop up," she noted.
     Firms, with head offices in places like Seattle, LA and San Francisco, have
been expanding rather than have a growing number of employees work remotely. 
     So, instead of having workers "siloed and telecommuting in one day a week,
they would rather have a regional office," Kuar explained.
     Official U.S. non-farm payroll data for November will be released Friday
Dec. 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET. 
     MNI's median estimate looks for a rise of 200,000 for headline non-farm
payrolls in November, with a range of +165,000 to +250,000. The unemployment
rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% and average hourly earnings are seen
rising 0.3%.
     On payrolls, "there is a tendency to miss to the low side for November
payrolls, so an upside surprise is possible," said Kevin Kastner, Director of
U.S. Economic Research at MNI.
     In the past 10 years of forecasts for November payrolls, "there were three
overestimates with an average of 115,330 and seven underestimates averaging
41,000, so there is a greater chance of miss to the low side," he said. 
     Editor's Note: Reality Check stories report on topics of interest in the
U.S. economy and are intended to complement and anticipate economic data. If you
are currently an MNI subscriber and want to be on the Reality Check
email-distribution list, contact sales@marketnews.com
--MNI New York Bureau; tel: +1 212-669-6438; email: vicki.schmelzer@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MAURC$,M$U$$$,MX$$$$]

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