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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The Riksbank’s final policy decision of the year is expected to be a very close call. The MNI Markets team believes a 25bps hike to 4.25% with no changes to the pace of QT is the most likely outcome (Fig 1).
- Such a move would continue to support the weak SEK and ensure underlying inflation components continue their downward trajectory.
- Of the analyst previews that we have read, 9/15 expect a 25bps hike. Consensus expectations are somewhat at odds with market pricing, with SEB’s estimates on Friday 17 Nov showing just 6bps priced (i.e. 24% chance of a 25bps hike).
Our full preview including a summary of 15 sell-side views and the Riksbank's communication since the September Monetary Policy Minutes can be found here:
MNI Riksbank Preview - 2023-11.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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