-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Global Macro Weekly -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI RIKSBANK WATCH: A 75BP Hike Expected As Cycle Peak Nears
The Riksbank is widely expected to hike by 75-basis-points on Thursday after its November meeting, following its 100bps increase in September, but hefty declines in property prices and the Swedish central bank's own research showing high household sensitivity to interest rates suggest it will signal the end of the tightening cycle is near.
After delaying the start of its tightening campaign compared to its peers, the Riksbank has moved aggressively, with all five Executive Board members voting to increase the policy rate to 1.75% in September, when its forecast showed the policy rate peaking at a little over 2.5% in Q3 2023. While market pricing indicates that this anticipated cycle high is likely to be increased this time round, the increment is unlikely to be large.
The board's strategy of front-loading hikes to reinforce its commitment to getting inflation back to target is clear but so are downside risks.
As highlighted in analysis published in September’s Monetary Policy Report Sweden’s, high debt levels and the widespread use of floating rate or short-term fixed mortgages mean a policy rate of 2% would have an equivalent effect on household interest payments to one of 8% in the mid-1990s. First Deputy Governor Anna Breman also warned of the swift impact of interest rate rises in the September minutes.
HOUSE PRICES FALL
The widely used Valueguard home price index (HOX) fell 3.0% on the month in October alone, or by 2.1% seasonally-adjusted, with prices down 12% from their recent peak. Analysts' forecasts are for 20%-plus declines in house prices peak-to-trough.
The knock-on impact on the economy and the likelihood of recession in 2023 will weigh on the rate profile looking forward, with the Riksbank projecting unemployment to move back above 8% in 2024.
Late summer’s inflation surge surprised the Riksbank but the target CPIF measure, which does not take changes in mortgage rates into account, dipped to 9.3% in October from 9.8% in September. The central bank's latest forecast for it to reach almost 11% at the beginning of 2023 may remain little changed in November's forecast round.
November will be Governor Stefan Ingves’s final policy-setting meeting, and it may see the last sizeable hike of this cycle.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.