Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Full preview here:
Likely to keep policy on hold, with board unified after persistent vote split
The South African Reserve Bank are seen keeping rates and policy unchanged in March, with the board becoming unified behind policy after several consecutive meetings of split votes. At January's meeting, two members of the five-person board voted to cut rates by 25bps, but bubbling inflationary pressure courtesy of higher oil prices and higher-than-expected electricity price tariffs should sway the balance this month. This leads the SARB to now consider when to begin their expected tightening cycle, after indicating the first rate rise could come as soon as Q2.
March's meeting should solidify this view, with the data since January supporting the beginning of a tightening cycle this year, making May's meeting a market focus going forward.
The inflation outlook is key. Higher oil prices will feed directly into the SARB's model, with their 2021 and 2022 views certain to be upgraded from $50 and $55 per barrel respectively, which should support inflation expectations this year. Core measures should be broadly unchanged, with economic growth in South Africa largely inline with the Bank's expectations.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.