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MNI SNB Preview - December 2021: Rates Policy Seen Untouched

Executive Summary:

  • SNB again expected to keep their rates policy unchanged in December, retaining an aggressive easing bias
  • Board look to further ensure price stability and add “ongoing support to the Swiss economy in its recovery”
  • CPI forecasts should be notched higher near-term, but pressures dissipate ahead of year-end 2022
Full preview here:

MNISNBPrevDec21.pdf

The SNB are again expected to keep their rates policy unchanged in December, retaining an aggressive easing bias as the board look to further ensure price stability and add “ongoing support to the Swiss economy in its recovery”. With inflation projections seen below target across the forecast horizon and the ECB still several years away from a higher deposit rate, there is very little pressure on the SNB to change course at this stage.

Figure 1: CPI forecasts seen being bumped higher in near-term

Source: MNI/SNB

CPI forecasts rolled out in September were benign at best, particularly when compared to the inflation outturns currently being seen across the US and Eurozone. Recent currency strength could also be providing Switzerland with a solid exchange rate buffer to avoid the tough policy decisions being made at the ECB and Fed in the face of spiralling prices – transitory or otherwise.

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