Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- SNB expected to keep policy unchanged, looking through recent uptick in CPI
- Bank's hands tied by sagging medium-term inflation expectations
- CHF intervention to remain the policy tool of choice for any future downturn
The wave of global inflationary pressure may have helped Swiss Y/Y CPI inch back into positive territory this quarter, but with CHF strength and sagging medium-term inflation expectations, the SNB are unlikely to change tack on policy now, or anytime soon.
Having kept headline policy unchanged in March, the SNB did moderate their FX language somewhat. In December, the SNB committed to intervening "more strongly" in currency markets, but this phrase was removed from March's missive, reflecting the moderation in CHF strength against both the USD and EUR over the preceding three months.
In March, the SNB upgraded medium-term inflation forecasts, but they remain well below 1%
This is no longer the case, with EUR/CHF shedding around 3 big figures over the past quarter, so markets will be on watch to see whether this phrase re-enters the communications.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.