Free Trial

MNI SOURCES: Brexit Endgame Talks Near Amid Improved Climate

By David Thomas 
     LONDON (MNI) - EU leaders will plot endgame strategy for Brexit talks in
Salzburg next week, with officials reporting an improved climate in talks with
the UK although the tough Irish border issue must be resolved for an agreement
to be clinched by November.
     Optimism about averting the danger that the UK crashes out of the bloc
without any deal next March revived after EU Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier
told a business audience in Slovenia Sept. 10 an agreement was achievable within
six-to-eight weeks if negotiators are realistic.
     EU officials said while the atmosphere in talks has warmed, Barnier's
comments were nothing new.
     "He expressed the same ideas a month ago - namely, it will be very hard to
reach a deal in October and realism will be needed," said one source, "It's in
everyone's interests to make it work, no-one wants a no deal."
     --CLOCK TICKING
     The EU line remains the same, said another, "it is just the urgency becomes
more and more an issue - the clock is ticking."
     But officials agreed there has been a big improvement in relations between
the two sides since the start of 2018 when they despaired of talks going
anywhere.
     "That was like - 'hello, is there someone to talk to here?'" said one
official.
     The Salzburg summit is one of the so-called 'Leaders' Agenda' series.
Described by one official as 'officially informal', these permit leaders to
discuss policy in a freer, more strategic way without deadline pressure or any
need to hammer out last-minute political bargains.
     UK Prime Minister Theresa May will attend a dinner Sept. 19, pitching a
'message' on Brexit to the EU-27 ahead of talks without her over the next day's
lunch.
     --IRISH BORDER
     Following agreements on budget and citizens' rights, the big obstacle
remains the wording of a legal text for the so-called 'backstop' solution to the
Irish border issue.
     As one official says - "If Ireland comes through, the rest will come
through."
     While EU negotiators welcomed "positive elements" of the Chequers Plan put
forward by the UK prime minister in July, Michel Barnier slated others, in
particular the proposal that the UK would collect import tariffs and apply
Brussels' trade regulations on behalf of the EU as a way of resolving the border
question.
     The EU's own standing proposal for the backstop involves a 'border in the
Irish Sea', leaving Northern Ireland still inside the EU customs union in the
immediate post-Brexit period, but this has been dismissed by members of the
province's DUP party, whose votes are crucial to keeping May's government in
office.
     "The EU is now seeing how it can ensure that the necessary controls are
implemented in a de-dramatised way," one EU official said.
     While the October 18-19 summit remains the official target date for a
Brexit deal, officials increasingly think a deal will take at least a few more
weeks and are pencilling in a dedicated Brexit summit for November 12-13.
     October now "seems a bit difficult to manage" - in the words of one.
     "I think there is a chance if there is political willingness," said one
source, "but there again there has to be a bit of a drama - but we're all used
to emergency summitry."
--MNI London Bureau; +44208-865-3829; email: Jason.Webb@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MC$$$$,MX$$$$,MFX$$$,MGX$$$]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.