-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI SOURCES: EU's Fiscal Showdown With Italy Likely In Autumn
--France, Spain Set To Receive More Lenient Treatment
By David Thomas
BRUSSELS (MNI) - The EU Commission and the Eurogroup look set to postpone
any new fiscal enforcement measures against Italy until the autumn of this year,
officials close to the Eurogroup say.
Such action would in theory be possible based on the Commission's Spring
forecasts and Italy's 2018 preliminary budget deficit estimate. But the EU
Commission and EU President do not want Italy's public finances to become a
focal point during May's European Parliament elections, or to complicate the
process of appointing a new Commission, whose outgoing Economic and Financial
Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici would normally play a key role in any
Excessive Deficit Procedure, EU officials close to the fiscal policy process
said.
While Spain and France are also likely to face reprimand from the
Commission, one senior source indicated that their treatment is likely to be
very different from that to be meted out to Italy.
"Spain and France will be treated a lot more leniently," the source said.
"France is France and Spain has got economic growth. Italy has no growth and has
debt at 132% of GDP."
French government plans to increase spending by around E10 billion as a
response to the 'Gilets Jaunes' protests have already received a nod from the
European Commission and were part of the reason that the Commission compromised
on Italy's 2019 budget plan at the end of last year.
Autumn would have other advantages from the fiscal enforcement standpoint,
including the fact that Italy's definitive 2018 budget deficit estimate will
have been submitted and Italy will also by then be obliged to present a Draft
Budgetary Plan for 2020. The availability of these data, together with the
Commission's Autumn forecasts, should provide a clear case for action.
Italy and the Commission reached a deal in December last year under which
it would keep its budget deficit to 2.04% of GDP this year. Growth since then
has disappointed, with the country entering into a technical recession in the
final two quarters of 2018. The Commission's latest forecast is for growth of
just 0.2% this year. This sharp deterioration will put upward pressure on
Italian budget deficit numbers for 2018 and make it more unlikely that Italy can
achieve its agreed target.
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3829; email: jason.webb@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MFIBU$,M$E$$$,M$F$$$,M$I$$$,M$S$$$,M$X$$$,MC$$$$,MT$$$$,MX$$$$,MFF$$$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.