MNI SOURCES: France Faces EU Calls To Ease Brexit Fish Stance

This week's European Union summit will see efforts by some member states to push back against French demands on fisheries in Brexit talks, but any breakthrough is unlikely with officials prepared to see negotiations press ahead through October, sources close to preparations told MNI.

The current draft summit statement contains only a call to "intensify talks" in reference to Brexit, and little else of substance, they said, adding that leaders will push for the inclusion of more constructive language. While UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson insists on an Oct. 15 deadline for a deal, and the EU says one must be agreed this month in order for it to be implemented in time for the conclusion of the UK's Brexit transition period at the end of the year, European officials said they were prepared to keep talking if the British are willing.

With further Covid crackdowns looming across the EU, sources say the bloc is keen to avoid more upheaval as a result of Brexit, particularly with national elections on the medium-term horizon in many countries. In contrast to other recent EU summits, Brexit will be the main focus for leaders' attention, with one diplomat from a major European country saying that the summit would not be going ahead were the threat of rupture with the UK not so pressing.

"The political appetite for no-deal is not very big, but still I'd put chances of a deal at 50/50 or 60/40 at best," a source said.

FISHING COMPROMISE

Summit discussion will concentrate on agreeing language which is "open and constructive" and there should be efforts to push back against France's refusal to accept reductions in its UK fishing quotas, sources said. One source suggested the meeting could be a replay of the April 2019 summit where Macron was alone in resisting a one-year extension of the UK's EU membership.

Other member states do not want talks to get bogged down in Anglo-French arguments over fisheries, sources said. But, while they see no change to the fisheries negotiating mandate at the summit, they agree that France will eventually have to compromise on its demands.

"Everyone knows – including the French – we can't get that," the EU source said.

MERKEL'S OBJECTIVES

With Germany holding the rotating presidency of the European Council, Chancellor Angela Merkel will remind leaders that key Brexit objectives are protecting the economy and the integrity of the EU's single market.

"What Merkel and [EU Chief Negotiator Michel] Barnier are saying to France on fish is, yes we want a fair compromise but that will always entail a bigger chunk of quotas for the UK," the European diplomat said.

The main outcome of the summit is likely to be no change to EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier's negotiating mandate and consensus that a deal on state aid, and particularly on governance of any such agreement, would be the key to unlocking a deal, one source said.

"If we get a deal on level playing field, I really don't see fisheries blocking an FTA, because then France would still have zero access to UK fish anyway," the EU source said.

Should talks fail and be cut off, the national diplomat even speculated that they might resume following a UK no-deal exit at the end of the year.

"We'll keep on negotiating to the very last moment and if need be we probably reach a deal early next year."

"A bit of chaos tends to focus minds."

EU-UK Brexit talks will resume in London on Monday October 19 following the summit.