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MNI South Africa Budget Preview - February 2023: Fiscal Tailwind Fading

Executive Summary:

  • Godongwana to outline budget at 2pm local time (1200GMT) Wednesday February 22nd
  • Fiscal tailwind present at last year’s MTBPS has faded
  • Eskom debt pile, SRD grant remain outstanding issues
  • Consensus looks for budget deficit to narrow to 4.5% this fiscal year, 4.4% in the next

Full preview including summary of sell-side views here:

MNISABudgetPrevFeb23.pdf


The fiscal tailwinds present for Godongwana’s budget last year have faded, with slower growth, a more sizeable debt burden and persistent load-shedding all making for a starker budget update this February relative to Godongwana’s MTBPS update in October. As a result, consensus looks for fiscal consolidation to continue to press ahead, albeit at a slower rate than projected last year. Survey looks for the 2023/24 budget deficit to narrow to 4.5% this year, and then 4.4% in 2024/25 and 3.9% in 2025/26 – a slower pace of consolidation than previously expected.


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