Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- Public finances expected on a better track, with deficit seen stabilizing at 4.5 – 5.0% of GDP
- Better growth outlook and commodity price seen pressuring debt-to-GDP ratio below 73%
- Market to focus on Eskom debt re-structuring plans and any basic income grant announcement
Godongwana should present a flattering set of metrics for the MTBPS, with deficits seen smaller and debt pile seen improving further. Nonetheless, the government are likely to double-down on their conservative, consolidative approach as the global economy deteriorates. Outside of the usual fiscal health check, headline policy announcements will likely include the government’s plans for Eskom debt, a focus on environmental measures, a possible basic income grant as well as a possible deferral of a public sector wage agreement.
Tackling South Africa’s biggest economic issues will be top-of-mind for the government, with Ramaphosa privately conceding that Eskom is “killing us” ahead of December’s ANC elective conference. Similarly, Godongwana has stated that the economy is underperforming by as much as 40% due to rolling blackouts and load-shedding. As such, a longer-term plan for Eskom debt will be carefully watched, with the Treasury expected to shoulder a significant portion of outstanding debt to free up funds.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.